After Rate Decisions, Look for the Economic Response
A rate decision is only the starting point. Credit demand, rate-sensitive spending, currency effects, and physical oil supply show whether policy is reaching the economy.
Weekly global market record
What did we expect, and what actually changed? Choose a year and month to revisit the outlook and review for each week.
2026
September
Different Inflation Signals, Different Policy Tests
Higher inflation does not have the same cause or persistence everywhere. Read US, UK and Japanese policy judgments alongside China’s real activity to test whether cost pressure is spreading.
Shared Inflation Concerns, Different Rate Decisions
The Fed and BOJ chose rate increases while the BOE held. Similar inflation concerns produced different responses, and China’s faster output did not establish a broad recovery in consumption and investment.
After the Jobs Rebound, Inflation Takes the Lead
US hiring has recovered some ground. This week, inflation will help show how much room central banks have to respond, while renewed shipping risks keep energy costs in view.
Renewed Price Pressure Put Policy Back in Focus
US monthly inflation picked up and the ECB raised rates. China’s uneven price signals showed why rising costs still needed to be separated from a recovery in final demand.
August
Jobs, Inflation, and Energy Risk Converge on Policy
The week is less about any single jobs or inflation print than about how policymakers reconcile conflicting signals from growth, prices, and supply risk.
Jobs Rebounded, but Inflation and Supply Risks Remained
US hiring recovered some ground, while inflation and supply risks remained uneven. The week’s lesson was to follow the details behind the headline numbers and policy statements.
Energy Risk, AI Investment, and a Split in Central-Bank Pace
Strait of Hormuz supply risk remained a common inflation constraint, while resilient US private demand and AI investment supported growth expectations and central banks responded to the same uncertainty at different speeds.
Energy risk reconnected rates and inflation
The end of the U.S.-Iran negotiating deadline renewed energy supply risks as long-term yields rose on fiscal and government-bond supply concerns. FOMC minutes and inflation in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforced the constraints on rapid monetary easing.
Energy shock and easing inflation pulled in opposite directions
Energy supply stress persisted, but monthly U.S. inflation eased, while monetary policy and crop balances pointed to distinct conditions rather than a single market direction.