What did we expect, and what actually changed? Choose a year and month to revisit the outlook and review for each week.
US hiring has recovered some ground. This week, inflation will help show how much room central banks have to respond, while renewed shipping risks keep energy costs in view.
Review pending
View outlookThe week is less about any single jobs or inflation print than about how policymakers reconcile conflicting signals from growth, prices, and supply risk.
US hiring recovered some ground, while inflation and supply risks remained uneven. The week’s lesson was to follow the details behind the headline numbers and policy statements.
Strait of Hormuz supply risk remained a common inflation constraint, while resilient US private demand and AI investment supported growth expectations and central banks responded to the same uncertainty at different speeds.
No outlook on record
View reviewThe end of the U.S.-Iran negotiating deadline renewed energy supply risks as long-term yields rose on fiscal and government-bond supply concerns. FOMC minutes and inflation in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforced the constraints on rapid monetary easing.
No outlook on record
View reviewEnergy supply stress persisted, but monthly U.S. inflation eased, while monetary policy and crop balances pointed to distinct conditions rather than a single market direction.
No outlook on record
View review