Skip to main content
Futures CompassWeekly market record
ENG한글

Weekly market record

Period:

This week in global markets

What deserves attention this week? Start with the main thread, then explore what could change the view and what to watch next.

Weekly outlook · Outlook published

After the Jobs Rebound, Inflation Takes the Lead

US hiring has recovered some ground. This week, inflation will help show how much room central banks have to respond, while renewed shipping risks keep energy costs in view.

Published
Last reviewed
Edited and reviewed by

The week at a glance

The week opens with a firmer US jobs report and an unresolved inflation question. August hiring rebounded, while euro-area energy inflation rose and services inflation eased. The next test is whether price pressure is spreading or becoming more contained. That distinction matters for both the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting and the ECB’s decision this Thursday.

After Monday’s US Labor Day holiday, the main scheduled releases arrive late in the week: US PPI and the ECB decision on Thursday, September 10, then US CPI on Friday, September 11. Oil is the link between the growth and inflation stories. Reports of new tanker strikes make physical supply and shipping conditions especially relevant; the September 6 OPEC+ meeting result had not been verified at the editorial cutoff.

Weekly outlook · Topics and sources
01Developing

Jobs Rebounded. The Next Test Is Inflation.

Stronger hiring gives the Fed more to weigh before its September meeting. This week’s inflation data will help complete the picture.

Verified facts

  1. 01

    The September 4 BLS report put August US nonfarm payroll growth at 162,000, with unemployment unchanged at 4.1%. [1]

  2. 02

    June payroll growth was revised from 20,000 to 31,000, and July from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. Together, the revisions added 55,000 jobs to the earlier estimates. [1]

  3. 03

    Food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs and local government education added 42,000, while information employment fell by 23,000. Average hourly earnings on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.3% over the month and 3.1% over the year. [1]

  4. 04

    The Federal Reserve kept its policy-rate target range at 3.50–3.75% on July 29. The next FOMC meeting, on September 15–16, falls after this outlook week and is scheduled to include economic projections. [2][3]

  5. 05

    Three FOMC members dissented in July because they preferred a quarter-point rate increase. [2]

Why it matters
The August report reduced the evidence for an abrupt slowdown, although hiring gains remained concentrated. A broad easing in inflation alongside resilient employment would make the policy trade-off less difficult. Persistent price pressure would leave the Fed balancing a firmer labor market against unfinished inflation work. The July dissents show why the next decision cannot be reduced to a simple hold-or-cut story.
What remains uncertain
Payroll estimates remain subject to revision, and one rebound does not establish a lasting trend. The September 15–16 rate decision and projections are still ahead; this week’s releases will inform that assessment.

What to watch next

  • Whether August inflation eases across services and non-energy prices
  • Whether future hiring gains broaden beyond the leading industries
  • The September 15–16 FOMC projections and balance of risks

Related markets

02Scheduled

Look Beneath the US Inflation Headlines

Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI will show whether July’s relief extends beyond cheaper energy.

Verified facts

  1. 01

    The BLS calendar lists US Labor Day on September 7, August PPI on September 10, and August CPI on September 11. Both data releases are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT / 7:30 a.m. CDT / 9:30 p.m. KST on their respective dates. [4]

  2. 02

    July CPI rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% over the month and 3.4% over the year. Excluding food and energy, the increases were 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively; energy prices fell 1.5% over the month. [5]

  3. 03

    July final-demand PPI was unchanged on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, but the measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. Final-demand goods prices fell 0.7%, while services prices rose 0.2%. [6]

Why it matters
July’s modest headline increases concealed a less settled picture underneath. Start with monthly core CPI and services, then compare them with non-energy producer prices. If easing becomes broader while hiring holds up, the growth and inflation signals would fit together more comfortably. If only energy provides relief, the case for durable price stability would remain weaker.
What remains uncertain
The August results are still ahead. PPI and CPI cover different transactions, so one cannot predict the other mechanically. Neither is the PCE measure used for the Fed’s inflation objective. A release can be assessed against July’s composition; calling it a beat or miss would also require a verified consensus forecast.

What to watch next

  • Monthly core CPI and how widely services prices change
  • Non-energy goods and services beneath headline PPI
  • Whether price relief extends beyond energy

Related markets

03Scheduled

The ECB Must Judge How Far Energy Costs Spread

Energy inflation is rising as services and core inflation ease. Thursday’s decision will reveal how the ECB weighs those competing signals.

Verified facts

  1. 01

    The ECB is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting in Berlin on September 9–10, followed by a press conference on September 10. [7]

  2. 02

    Eurostat’s September 1 flash estimate put August euro-area annual inflation at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July. Energy inflation increased from 10.3% to 14.3%, while services inflation eased from 3.3% to 3.0%. [8]

  3. 03

    Annual inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was estimated at 2.4% in August, down from 2.5% in July. Eurostat schedules the full August data release for September 17. [8]

  4. 04

    On July 23, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.25% and said it would monitor the energy shock’s intensity, duration, and indirect and second-round effects. It did not commit to a particular rate path. [9]

Why it matters
The key question is how long the energy shock lasts and whether it reaches wages and services. Persistent spillovers would make slower core inflation less reassuring. Contained energy effects and sustained easing in services would offer a more favorable picture. Read the decision together with the ECB’s explanation of those risks.
What remains uncertain
The August figures are provisional, and the full release follows the ECB meeting. A single component cannot settle the policy outlook. Comparisons with the United States also need to allow for different inflation measures and price baskets.

What to watch next

  • How long the ECB expects energy pressure to last
  • Evidence of spillovers into wages, services, and inflation expectations
  • Revisions in Eurostat’s full September 17 release

Related markets

04Developing

Oil Supply Depends on Barrels and Safe Passage

New tanker-strike reports bring shipping risks back into focus. Producers’ plans and Thursday’s US inventory report offer only part of the supply picture.

Verified facts

  1. 01

    OPEC announced on August 2 that seven participating OPEC+ countries would implement a production adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day in September and meet again on September 6. [10]

  2. 02

    AP and Reuters reported on September 5 that US Central Command said it struck three Iranian oil tankers. [12][13]

  3. 03

    In its September 2 report, the EIA said US commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million in the week ending August 28. [14]

  4. 04

    The same report put the four-week average of total petroleum products supplied at 20.4 million barrels per day, 4.0% below the corresponding year-earlier period. [14]

  5. 05

    Because of Labor Day, the next main EIA weekly petroleum release is scheduled for September 10 at noon EDT / 11 a.m. CDT, or September 11 at 1 a.m. KST. Some follow-up files arrive later. [15]

Why it matters
Three questions now belong together: what producers decide, how much oil reaches buyers, and whether vessels can move safely. Thursday’s US data will add a domestic supply-and-demand check. Falling crude stocks alongside weaker products supplied call for a look at refinery activity and trade flows before concluding that demand is strong. Sustained shipping disruptions could keep energy costs relevant to both US and European inflation.
What remains uncertain
The September 6 OPEC+ result had not been verified in the official press-release list at the editorial cutoff. The tanker reports establish what US Central Command said; they do not independently establish the full damage or disruption. The next inventory report is still ahead, and US products supplied is an estimate of domestic product use, not a direct measure of final consumption.

What to watch next

  • The official OPEC+ decision, followed by actual output and exports
  • Dated evidence on vessel traffic, shipping safety, and insurance conditions
  • Thursday’s mix of stocks, refinery activity, and four-week products supplied

Related markets

Context source: [11]

Sources

Sources and evidence

Follow a source number in the text to its reference below. Primary documents and independent reporting let you check the facts for yourself.

  1. [1]Primary source
    US Bureau of Labor Statistics · August 2026 Employment Situation

    Archived September 4 release with August payrolls, industry detail, wages, and June–July revisions

  2. [2]Primary source
    Federal Reserve · July 2026 FOMC Statement

    The unchanged target range, policy assessment, and three dissents favoring a quarter-point increase

  3. [3]Primary source
    Federal Reserve · Official FOMC Calendar

    The September 15–16 meeting and its scheduled economic projections

  4. [4]Primary source
    US Bureau of Labor Statistics · September 2026 Release Calendar

    Labor Day and official August PPI and CPI dates and Eastern Time publication slots

  5. [5]Primary source
    US Bureau of Labor Statistics · July 2026 CPI

    Headline and core consumer inflation and the monthly energy-price decline

  6. [6]Primary source
    US Bureau of Labor Statistics · July 2026 PPI

    Final demand, goods, services, and the measure excluding food, energy, and trade services

  7. [7]Primary source
    European Central Bank · Governing Council Calendar

    The September 9–10 policy meeting and press conference in Berlin

  8. [8]Primary source
    Eurostat · August 2026 Euro-Area Inflation Flash Estimate

    Headline, energy, services, and core inflation, plus the September 17 full-release date

  9. [9]Primary source
    European Central Bank · July 2026 Monetary Policy Decision

    The unchanged deposit rate and the framework for assessing energy persistence and second-round effects

  10. [10]Primary source
    OPEC · Output Adjustment and Next Meeting of Seven OPEC+ Countries

    The September adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day and the September 6 meeting

  11. [11]Context source
    OPEC · Official Press Releases

    Checked for the September 6 meeting result; no result was verified by the editorial cutoff

  12. [12]Independent reporting
    Associated Press · US Statement on Iranian Tanker Strikes

    September 5 reporting on Central Command’s account; the attribution does not establish an independent damage assessment

  13. [13]Independent reporting
    Reuters · US Statement on Iranian Oil-Carrier Strikes

    Independent Reuters dispatch on Central Command’s statement, carried by Internazionale

  14. [14]Primary source
    US Energy Information Administration · September 2 Petroleum Report

    Crude stocks for the week ending August 28 and four-week average products supplied

  15. [15]Primary source
    US Energy Information Administration · Weekly Holiday Release Schedule

    The Labor Day shift to noon Eastern Time on September 10; follow-up files may arrive later