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What changed last week
What happened, and how did it change the picture? Read the confirmed developments alongside the questions that remain open.
Energy shock and easing inflation pulled in opposite directions
Energy supply stress persisted, but monthly U.S. inflation eased, while monetary policy and crop balances pointed to distinct conditions rather than a single market direction.
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- Futures Compass
The week at a glance
Global markets spent the week of August 9–15 weighing an energy supply shock against signs of easing inflation. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept upside risks to crude and freight costs in place, while U.S. consumer and producer prices slowed on a monthly basis in July.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates to assess the effects of its previous three increases, while keeping another hike on the table. The USDA report showed tighter corn and wheat balances but a larger cushion in soybeans, underscoring why broad commodity moves should not be read as one uniform signal.
Week in review · Topics and sources
Hormuz uncertainty unsettled the energy supply outlook
The durability of negotiations and shipping routes mattered more than isolated signs of recovering vessel traffic.
Verified facts
- 01
In its August report, the IEA estimated that after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again in early July, regional crude exports including alternative routes fell by 2.1 million barrels per day from June to 15 million barrels per day in July. [1]
- 02
The IEA estimated a global oil supply deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026 and said observed global inventories declined by 69 million barrels in July. [1]
- 03
Reuters reported that oil prices rose about 5% on August 10 as the United States and Iran remained divided over the conditions for reopening the strait. [2]
- 04
AP reported on August 11 that the U.S. government claimed transit was increasing, but the terms and timing of a reopening remained unclear, while oil prices stayed above prewar levels. [3]
- The key variable was the reliability of the shipping route, not the oil price at a single moment. Even if some vessel traffic recovered, failed negotiations or further attacks could reverse that progress, leaving energy costs linked to both U.S. inflation and monetary policy abroad.
- A durable agreement and independently verified normalization of shipping would weaken the supply-risk case. Continued attacks on vessels or refineries, or further disruption to alternative routes, would make it difficult for rising U.S. inventories alone to offset risks to global product supply.
What to watch next
- Independently verified vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
- U.S.-Iran negotiations and shipping security
- EIA commercial crude and refined-product inventories
Related markets
U.S. inflation eased, but did not signal an all-clear
Monthly inflation slowed, but the contribution from lower energy prices and underlying pressure at the producer level still required attention.
Verified facts
- 01
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over the year. [4]
- 02
Consumer energy prices fell 1.5% in July but remained 14.7% higher than a year earlier. [4]
- 03
The producer price index for final demand was unchanged in July and rose 4.7% from a year earlier. Goods prices fell 0.7%, while services prices increased 0.2%. [5]
- 04
AP reported that Treasury yields fell and major U.S. stock indexes edged higher on the day the consumer price data were released. [6]
- The headline readings reduced the immediate pressure for additional tightening, but falling energy prices did much of the work and underlying pressure in producer services remained. The release bought policymakers time to examine more data; it did not establish that inflation had been fully contained.
- A substantial share of the producer price data was collected early in the month and may not have fully captured the late-July rise in oil prices. A renewed increase in August inflation or personal consumption expenditures prices would weaken the case that the slowdown was durable.
What to watch next
- July personal consumption expenditures inflation
- August consumer and producer prices
- Pass-through from energy costs to consumer prices
Related markets
The RBA held rates without ruling out further tightening
The pause was closer to an assessment of earlier rate increases and energy-related upside risks than a shift toward easing.
Verified facts
- 01
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target at 4.35% on August 11, marking a second consecutive hold. [7]
- 02
The RBA said financial conditions were somewhat restrictive and the economy was slowing, but also said inflation remained too high. [7][8]
- 03
The RBA said the inflationary effect of the Middle East conflict had been smaller than expected, but oil and related commodity prices remained above pre-conflict levels. It explicitly left open another rate increase if upside risks materialized. [7]
- 04
Reuters reported limited moves in the Australian dollar and Australian three-year government bond yields immediately after the decision. [9]
- The decision was a pause to assess previous increases, not a pivot toward easing. It also showed that an economy highly exposed to commodities and China still had to weigh an external energy shock against slowing domestic activity.
- Faster disinflation, a weaker labor market, or a deeper housing slowdown would reduce the need for another increase. A renewed rise in energy costs and domestic services inflation would make an extended hold less certain.
What to watch next
- Australian inflation and labor-market data
- Import-price pressure through the Australian dollar
- The next monetary policy decision
Related markets
Crop balances diverged by commodity
Corn and wheat balances tightened, while larger soybean production and stocks provided a relative cushion.
Verified facts
- 01
The USDA lowered its forecast for 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks from 1.790 billion bushels to 1.653 billion bushels. [10]
- 02
The U.S. corn yield forecast was reduced from 183.0 to 180.7 bushels per acre, but a larger planted area lifted projected production slightly, from 16.000 billion to 16.013 billion bushels. [10]
- 03
Projected U.S. soybean production increased from 4.475 billion to 4.519 billion bushels, while ending stocks rose from 310 million to 320 million bushels. [10]
- 04
Reuters reported that corn, soybean, and wheat futures all rose after the report, with the lower corn stocks projection driving the central market reaction. [11]
- Agricultural balances did not tighten uniformly. For corn, lower beginning stocks and stronger projected exports reduced ending stocks despite a small increase in production, while expanded acreage and output gave soybeans more room.
- The report contained forecasts, not final production totals. Harvest weather, realized yields, export demand, Black Sea logistics, and revisions in the next report could all change the balance-sheet assessment.
Sources and evidence
Follow a source number in the text to its reference below. Primary documents and independent reporting let you check the facts for yourself.
- [1]IEA · Oil Market Report — August 2026
Disruption around Hormuz, regional crude exports, and estimates of global supply and inventories
- [2]Reuters · Hormuz negotiations and the oil market
U.S.-Iran disagreement over reopening terms and the market reaction on August 10
- [3]AP · Shipping through Hormuz and the Middle East conflict
Independent reporting that distinguishes U.S. government claims from unresolved reopening conditions
- [4]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Consumer Price Index, July 2026
Monthly and annual consumer inflation, including the energy component
- [5]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Producer Price Index, July 2026
Final-demand producer prices and the goods and services components
- [6]AP · U.S. markets on the CPI release day
Treasury and equity-market moves following the consumer inflation report
- [7]Reserve Bank of Australia · August 2026 monetary policy decision
The cash rate target, policy assessment, and conditions surrounding upside risks
- [8]Reserve Bank of Australia · Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026
Official context for the Australian growth and inflation outlook
- [9]Reuters · RBA decision and market reaction
Australian dollar and three-year government bond moves immediately after the hold
- [10]U.S. Department of Agriculture · World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 2026
Production and ending-stock projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat
- [11]Reuters · August WASDE and grain markets
Market reaction across major grain futures after the report